The tech tree is less legible than you think: Moderna had a vaccine prototype before experts predicted
shakoistsLog · x · 2026-10-05
Recalling the start of COVID, the author notes that prominent health experts predicted a vaccine would take over a year — yet the prototype that ended up being used was already built by Moderna. The lesson: the tech tree is far less legible than it appears, a point equally relevant to forecasting AI progress.
Related event: Covid vaccine case shows tech progress often defies expert predictions(2 posts)→
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