Metaculus forecasters now expect 'weak AGI' later than pre-ChatGPT, Mollick pushes back
emollick · x · 2026-09-09
Metaculus forecasters now expect 'weak AGI' to arrive later than they did just before ChatGPT launched. Ethan Mollick shared the shift with the note that earlier this year predictions were even further out, citing a video of Astra beating Montezuma's Revenge as evidence that forecaster consensus keeps lagging real AI progress.
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