Polymarket prices US AI safety bill at only ~20% odds
Polymarket contracts put the odds of the US passing an AI safety bill at only about 20-24%, with roughly $103K in trading volume. The contracts specify clear criteria for what counts as passage.
2026-09-12 ~ 2026-09-12 · 3 related posts
- Episode 1: Polymarket Bets Only 26% Chance of US AI Safety Bill by 2026(2026-07-29, 2 posts)
- Episode 2: Prediction Markets Skeptical on US AI Safety Legislation by 2026(2026-07-31, 2 posts)
- Episode 3: Prediction Markets Skeptical on US AI Safety Bill(2026-08-03, 3 posts)
- Episode 4: Prediction Market: Chances of US Federal AI Safety Law by 2026 Below 20%(2026-08-06, 2 posts)
- Episode 5: Prediction Market Estimates Only 11% Chance of US AI Safety Law by 2027(2026-08-10, 2 posts)
- Episode 6: Polymarket Sees Just 13% Odds of US Banning Chinese AI Models or Passing AI Safety Law(2026-08-15, 2 posts)
- Episode 7: Polymarket sees only ~12% odds of US AI safety law this year(2026-08-21, 2 posts)
- Episode 8: Polymarket Puts Odds of US AI Safety Law This Year at Just 10%(2026-08-24, 2 posts)
- Episode 9: Polymarket prices US federal AI safety bill odds at just 11%(2026-08-27, 5 posts)
- Episode 10: Polymarket prices just 11% chance of US AI safety law before 2027(2026-09-02, 3 posts)
- Episode 11: Polymarket Prices US Federal AI Safety Legislation by End of 2026 at Just 9-10%(2026-09-07, 5 posts)
- Episode 12: Polymarket Odds on US Federal AI Safety Bill Jump from ~9% to as High as 49% in Two Days(2026-09-09, 8 posts)
- Episode 13: Polymarket Bets on US AI Regulation Odds Around 30%(2026-09-11, 2 posts)
- Episode 14: Polymarket prices US AI safety bill at only ~20% odds(2026-09-12, 3 posts)
- Polymarket puts 24% odds on US AI safety bill before 2027 — Polymarket · 2026-09-12
- Polymarket Puts Only 20% Odds on US AI Safety Bill Before 2027 — Polymarket · 2026-09-12
1 near-duplicate retellings: Polymarket