Polymarket Puts Only 14% Odds on a US AI Safety Bill Before 2027
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-13
- The Polymarket market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill before 2027 is trading at just 14%, with $102,825 in volume.
- Resolution criteria include bans on creating/releasing specific AI systems, training restrictions (data access, parameter caps), usage restrictions, and human-in-the-loop requirements.
- Context: bipartisan Senate talks led by Majority Leader John Thune with Ted Cruz and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a draft imposing a legal duty of care on frontier model developers, including mandatory testing and incident reporting.
- Separately, Bernie Sanders declared that slowing AI development is "not enough," urging a full pause on advanced AI and a ban on superintelligence.
Related event: Polymarket Traders Put Just 14% Odds on US AI Safety Bill Passing This Year(5 posts)→
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