Polymarket Puts 14% Odds on US Enacting an AI Safety Bill This Year
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-13
The Polymarket market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill before the end of 2026 currently sits at 14%, with roughly $102,825 in volume.
- Resolution requires a signed federal bill containing at least one of: prohibition on creating/releasing specific AI systems, training restrictions (data access or parameter caps), usage restrictions, or mandatory human-in-the-loop requirements.
- Background: bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Sens. Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz on a bill imposing duties of care, mandatory incident reporting, and pre-release risk assessments for frontier models gained momentum in early September 2026.
- The post also quotes former White House AI Czar David Sacks telling Anthropic and OpenAI to "stop pretending you need anyone else's permission" to slow down AI development.
Related event: Polymarket Traders Put Just 14% Odds on US AI Safety Bill Passing This Year(5 posts)→
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