Polymarket puts 20% odds on US enacting an AI safety bill before 2027
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-12
Polymarket's market on the US enacting an AI safety bill before end-2026 trades at 20% with over $102K in volume. Bernie Sanders' proposed bill would impose up to 20 years in prison for researchers who break or evade restrictions on advanced AI development. The market resolves Yes if a law includes provisions like bans on creating/releasing specific models, training limits (data access or parameter caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar continue on targeted measures for catastrophic risks, incident reporting, and self-testing requirements.
Related event: Polymarket Traders Put Just 14% Odds on US AI Safety Bill Passing This Year(5 posts)→
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