Intelligence explosion debate: crudest model says ~1 year, insiders diverge from outsiders
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-08
benjtodd argues that even the dumbest possible way to model the intelligence explosion yields a timeline of about a year — and this lines up with more sophisticated models like those from the AI Futures Project.
MatthewJBar pushes back: he isn't convinced we'll see an intelligence explosion within 2 years, but notes many are converging on that view. As we get closer, he expects a wild divergence between insiders who believe we're mere weeks from 'the end of the world' and outsiders living normally.
The thread captures the core tension in current AGI timeline debates: estimates getting more aggressive while the gap between alarmed insiders and the oblivious outside world widens.
Related event: Crude Model Puts Superintelligence a Year Away, Sparking Debate(2 posts)→
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