Crude Model Puts Superintelligence a Year Away, Sparking Debate

benjtodd argues that even the crudest model of an intelligence explosion puts superintelligence about a year away, matching finer estimates from projects like the AI Futures Project and intensifying debate over timelines.

2026-11-07 ~ 2026-11-08 · 2 related posts

• The dumbest intelligence explosion model says ~1 year — matching sophisticated forecasts — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-07
• Intelligence explosion debate: crudest model says ~1 year, insiders diverge from outsiders — sebkrier · 2026-11-08