Oxford's Toby Ord: Capability curves look like a step-change, not a slope shift
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-06
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord argues that a step-change linear fit (same slope, higher intercept at the breakpoint) is mathematically as simple a hypothesis as a slope change — and given a new, improved large pre-train, it would be quite shocking if there weren't a step change in capability.
Related event: Oxford Philosopher Argues AI Capability Gains Rise in Step-Like Jumps(3 posts)→
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