Oxford Philosopher Argues AI Capability Gains Rise in Step-Like Jumps

Oxford philosopher Toby Ord argues that AI capability curves rise in step-like jumps driven by new-generation large pretraining runs rather than slope changes, and notes that METR's full report includes sensitivity analyses covering such alternative assumptions.

2026-11-06 ~ 2026-11-06 · 3 related posts

• Oxford's Toby Ord: Capability curves look like a step-change, not a slope shift — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-06
• Toby Ord: before RLVR, big pre-trains drove most sudden capability jumps — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-06
• Toby Ord: METR's sensitivity analysis weighs a vertical jump from the Mythos pre-train — tobyordoxford · 2026-11-06