Report: AI is doubling Anthropic's capabilities progress, a big update toward very short timelines
EvanHub · x · 2026-11-06
Anthropic researcher Ryan Greenblatt discussed a new report on AI R&D automation (RSI):
- The report finds Anthropic's capabilities progress has doubled, mainly due to AI. Greenblatt's modeling from public info suggests the whole company's R&D is running 4-5x faster, with labor uplift even higher.
- He calls it a major update toward ASI within 1-2 years: AI progress is currently sped up 2x by RSI, a milestone AI 2027 placed around March 2027.
- He admits he was seriously wrong — he previously expected only 1.15-1.3x speedup in 2026 — and that privately available evidence could have changed his mind earlier.
- He stresses he has only seen the heavily redacted public version; conclusions beyond the observed 2x benchmark-progress rate rely heavily on trust in the report.
Ajeya Cotra frames it as a major update to very short timelines.
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