OpenAI's 3.4-month compute doubling trend used ~15 data points; Epoch AI corrected it to ~6

ohlennart · x · 2026-11-04

OpenAI's famous "3.4-month compute doubling" trend was based on only 15 data points (the chart shows a 300,000x increase from AlexNet to AlphaGo Zero). A group of researchers later corrected it to 6 months using 100 data points — that group became Epoch AI. The quoted post adds that Gordon Moore based his original prediction on just 5 data points.

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