Metaculus forecasters put 96% odds on open-weight AI reaching superhuman hacking by July 2027
SpencrGreenberg · x · 2026-10-31
Spencer Greenberg highlights a Metaculus forecast giving 96% probability that an open-weight AI model achieves Mythos-level cyber capabilities by July 2027, a number that climbed 2% this week. With Mythos described as having superhuman hacking ability, he warns the floodgates for widely accessible top-tier offensive cyber capability are about to open.
Related event: Forecasters See Open-Source AI Reaching Superhuman Hacking by 2027(2 posts)→
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