Forecasters See Open-Source AI Reaching Superhuman Hacking by 2027

Metaculus forecasters assign a 96% probability that an open-weight AI with Mythos-level cyberattack capability emerges by July 2027, while Epoch's Capabilities Index shows the open-closed model gap has narrowed to under 10 points since 2023.

2026-10-31 ~ 2026-10-31 · 2 related posts

• Metaculus forecasters put 96% odds on open-weight AI reaching superhuman hacking by July 2027 — SpencrGreenberg · 2026-10-31
• Epoch index shows open-weight models closing the gap with closed frontier to under 10 points — SpencrGreenberg · 2026-10-31