SK hynix down 48% as DDR5 spot jumps 31%: market bets the memory boom ends
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-28
Tessara's pre-earnings note on SK hynix: the stock has lost roughly 48% since July 1, yet 16Gb DDR5 spot prices rose 31% over the same window, and Q3 revenue estimates fell only 5%. The read: the market isn't betting on a weak quarter — it's betting the memory boom won't last.
Key points
- July miss: Tessara gave 65% odds to operating profit of ₩65T+; SK delivered ₩60.5T because DRAM price hikes didn't flow through to selling prices at Q1 rates
- "Sold out through 2029" isn't all signed: LTAs cover >50% of 2027-28 capacity with pricing still floating in an agreed range — dependable revenue, shakier margins
- 2027 HBM volume and pricing with major customers is settled; HBM4 yield is a watch item
- Q3 consensus is ₩98.3T revenue, 24% QoQ growth
The Oct 28 earnings boil down to one question: any evidence the boom is ending? So far, rising prices, strong commitments and tight supply say no.
Related event: SK hynix Shares Halve While DDR5 Spot Prices Jump 31%(2 posts)→
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