A Bayesian take on P vs NP: likelihood ratio 10:1 favors P=NP
jessi_cata · x · 2026-10-28
A playful cross-domain post: the author asks ChatGPT for a consensus prior to run a Bayesian argument on the exponential time hypothesis. If P≠NP, P(ETH)≈90%; if P=NP, P(ETH)=0% — a 10:1 likelihood ratio in favor of P=NP. The author notes this only gives a likelihood ratio; the right prior remains open, and recent months' results were deliberately excluded.
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