Binmore's prescient warning that "Bayesianism will roll on regardless" resurfaces in AI debate
RichardMCNgo · x · 2026-10-28
Richard Ngo points to game theorist Ken Binmore's Rational Decisions, which argued Bayesian decision theory only applies in "smaller worlds" than economics assumes — written while Eliezer was composing the Sequences. Binmore ended it fearing "Bayesianism will roll on regardless," a prediction Ngo calls strikingly prescient.
Related event: Richard Ngo Revives Binmore's Early Critique of Bayesianism(2 posts)→
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