Carmack bets 2:1 against a humanoid robot changing jack-o-lantern batteries by Halloween 2028
davidpattersonx · x · 2026-10-28
John Carmack opened a concrete bet: will a humanoid robot running an open-source model autonomously complete the full process of changing a jack-o-lantern's batteries by Halloween 2028? He offers 2:1 odds against it happening.
jsuarez countered with a broader prediction: superintelligence will do everything better than humans by the end of 2028, inviting others to place their bets — a striking contrast between a narrow embodied task and the full AGI timeline debate.
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