Decomposing LLM decision regret into belief loss and optimization residual

JessicaHullman · x · 2026-10-23

Thread follow-up: without sufficient evidence to reach the true posterior, you can't gauge what the LLM had a chance to learn — endowing beliefs is standard in behavioral economics. This lets them decompose total regret into belief loss (cost of acting on wrong beliefs) and optimization residual (cost of not choosing optimally given the reported belief).

Related event: Northwestern paper decomposes LLM decision failures into belief loss and optimization residual(10 posts)→

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