$575K bet on explosive AI growth locked at 4:1 odds, implying 20% probability
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-22
benjtodd highlights a formal bet agreed on X: whether US real GDP per capita grows at least 15% within a single year relative to prior peak by end of 2033. The fast-growth side (William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie, Tom Cohen, Jan Kulweit) staked $115K against $460K from skeptics including Benjamin Moll, Alex Imas, Andrew Ho, Robin Hanson and Philippe Lemoine — 4:1 odds implying just 20% probability. His point: if self-styled 'skeptics' only bet 4:1 against, 20% is already far above what markets, policymakers, or almost anyone expects — time to freak out.
Related event: $575K bet prices 20% chance of AI-driven explosive growth(2 posts)→
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