$575K bet prices 20% chance of AI-driven explosive growth

A $575K bet confirmed on X wagers whether US real GDP per capita will grow at least 15% above its prior peak by end of 2033, at 4:1 odds implying a 20% probability. benjtodd notes that 20% far exceeds the expectations of markets, policymakers and almost everyone else.

2026-10-22 ~ 2026-10-22 · 2 related posts

• $575K bet on explosive AI growth locked at 4:1 odds, implying 20% probability — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-22
• ben_j_todd: 20% odds of explosive AI growth far exceeds market expectations — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-22