BofA: AI capex running 50% above forecasts, hyperscaler cost of capital jumps 4% to 10%
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-20
Bank of America research flags a widening mismatch in AI infrastructure: capex is running 50% above forecasts this year while revenue is only 20% above.
- Hyperscalers' weighted average cost of capital has climbed from 4% in 2023 to 10%, as risk-free rates sit more than 4 points above pandemic lows and debt costs, equity costs, and betas all rise
- BofA still projects top-5 hyperscaler plus neocloud capex at $956B in 2026, $1.32T in 2027, and $1.5T in 2028 (growth of 38%, then 14%)
- Its demand math calls for 212GW of new data center capacity between 2026–2030 at roughly $9.5T — $2.1T above the current $7.4T capex forecast
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