ARK models Tesla at $1.45T revenue by 2031 with Robotaxi driving 78% of EBITDA
mitchdeg · x · 2026-10-20
ARK's Tesla model projects $1.45T revenue and $900B EBITDA by 2031. Autos contribute $320B in revenue (22%) but only 6% of EBITDA; Robotaxi generates $753B (over half of revenue) yet 78% of EBITDA; Optimus adds $211B (15%) of revenue and 13% of EBITDA. Robotaxi accounts for 81% of the $16.4T enterprise value.
The author notes that beyond the specific numbers, ARK's core thesis is compelling: Tesla is increasingly positioned as an AI & Robotics company, with the auto business gradually marginalizing relative to everything else.
Related event: ARK Raises Tesla 2031 Price Target to $4,400 on Robotaxi Bet(2 posts)→
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