This P(doom) calculation goes viral: 0.80 × 0.45 × 0.95 × 0.60 = 21%
Crayola_God · reddit · 2026-10-20
A viral tweet shared on Reddit lays out one user's doom math: 1) RSI will happen, 80%; 2) RSI creates ASI, 45%; 3) ASI is impossible to align, 95%; 4) ASI is impossible to control, 60%. Multiplied out: 0.80 × 0.45 × 0.95 × 0.60 = 0.21, i.e. a 21% probability of doom. The explicit step-by-step multiplication format is circulating widely, with the thread asking others for their own P(doom).
Related event: Reddit User Estimates P(doom) at 21% Using Bayesian Multiplication(2 posts)→
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