Reddit User Estimates P(doom) at 21% Using Bayesian Multiplication

A Reddit post breaking P(doom) into a Bayesian chain—80% RSI, 45% ASI emergence, 95% misalignment, times uncontrollability—yields a 21% doom probability, sparking heated discussion on AI risk estimation.

2026-10-20 ~ 2026-10-20 · 2 related posts

• What's your P(doom)? One netizen multiplies RSI odds into 21% — Crayola_God · 2026-10-20
• This P(doom) calculation goes viral: 0.80 × 0.45 × 0.95 × 0.60 = 21% — Crayola_God · 2026-10-20