Manifold market pegs 15% odds we lose public key cryptography by end of 2028
moultano · x · 2026-10-09
Cryptographer Matthew Green's stark prediction that "we might lose public key cryptography" prompted a Manifold market from John David Pressman, currently trading at 15% YES by end of 2028. Resolution: all widely used public key schemes — RSA, Diffie–Hellman, ECDH, ECDSA, EdDSA, ML-KEM, sntrup761 — are publicly deemed in need of immediate deprecation (e.g., Chrome changes its crypto), regardless of whether AI caused it. Moultano argues intuitions are stale: six months ago breaking them all required a P=NP-style unified result, but now attackers can plausibly break each algorithm independently, in parallel, via theoretically unrelated flaws.
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