Yudkowsky: AGI spend by 'end of the world' might not exceed one TSMC fab
panickssery · x · 2026-10-09
A thread relaying Eliezer Yudkowsky's remark that he'd be surprised—but "not super surprised"—if AGI had less invested in it than a single TSMC fab by the end of the world. Per the poster, Yudkowsky puts $10 trillion of AGI spend at roughly 20x more likely under Paul Christiano's model than his own, underscoring the wide gap between the two camps' probability estimates for rapid AI scale-up.
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