Josh Purtell: thousands of easy research combos would make software-only takeoff obvious

oecolamp · x · 2026-10-07

Josh Purtell argues that in a world with thousands of advances requiring only N-S level creative combination of past research plus experimentation, software-only takeoff follows obviously; if there are only a few, it becomes much harder.

A notable framing of the takeoff debate: the key variable is the density of low-hanging research opportunities, not optimization skill alone.

Related event: Hard Takeoff Debate: Is AI Progress Driven by Hardware or Software Breakthroughs?(8 posts)→

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