Anthropic alignment head's doom estimate implies 800M innocent deaths, quips stats lecturer

wfithian · x · 2026-10-08

Responding to a thread about no frontier lab daring to answer P(doom) under oath, @wfithian quips: as a stats lecturer he's confident his lectures' expected innocent-death toll over the next decade is well below 100 — while an Anthropic alignment research head's estimate implies 800 million. "Too high?"

A sharp jab at the gap between AI-safety doom estimates and everyday quantitative risk framing.

Related event: Anthropic Researcher Estimates Over 10% Chance AI Kills Humanity Within a Decade(2 posts)→

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