eigenrobot debates EA forecasting: quantitative beats vague "I'm unsure"
eigenrobot · x · 2026-10-08
A debate on forecasting practice among EA/AI safety folks: davidmanheim agrees many are poorly calibrated but argues that the typical alternative — saying "I'm unsure" without quantitative thinking — is worse. eigenrobot pushes back: the practice of generating probabilities isn't itself bad; treating predictions as demonstrated is what's abusive.
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