How many N-S level architecture ideas like MoE and RLVR remain? Software takeoff hinges on it

JoshPurtell · x · 2026-10-07

JoshPurtell argues software-only takeoff hinges on a counting problem: if thousands of N-S level creative combinations of past research exist, software takeoff is obvious; if only a few, it gets much harder. He cites proven high-impact innovations — MoE, subquadratic attention, chain-of-thought RLVR, looping — without which models would be unusable even on new hardware, and asks how many more remain undiscovered.

Related event: Hard Takeoff Debate: Is AI Progress Driven by Hardware or Software Breakthroughs?(8 posts)→

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