JoshPurtell: most AI S-curves are hardware-exogenous, few are software-driven

JoshPurtell · x · 2026-10-07

Replying to oecolamp's hardware-bound argument, JoshPurtell says hardware growth has made most S-curves exogenous to software: capability jumps start with a GPU/model update, then effort shifts to saturating it. But he notes a few S-curves have come purely from software/science.

Related event: Hard Takeoff Debate: Is AI Progress Driven by Hardware or Software Breakthroughs?(8 posts)→

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