Seed investing has zero signal: top funds picking winners is luck, VC argues
dunkhippo33 · x · 2026-10-07
In a discussion with Harry Stebbings and Venky Ganesan, the investor argues that true seed/pre-seed investing — betting on companies with basically no revenue — has no signal: brand-name funds' ability to pick winners shows zero correlation, like batting .350 in baseball when the best can't hit .800.
Signal only emerges later when it becomes clear which companies are winning and investors concentrate on them — but by then, he notes, that's really the founders having picked the right fund, not the other way around.
Related event: Seed rounds carry no signal; top funds' picks are just luck, investors say(3 posts)→
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