Seed rounds carry no signal; top funds' picks are just luck, investors say

Investors argued on Harry Stebbings' podcast that seed rounds carry no real signal and top funds' picks are largely luck. One VC calculated that even an all-in bet on Anthropic would yield only about 20x, far below the 1000x potential a true seed investment demands.

2026-10-07 ~ 2026-10-07 · 3 related posts

• Seed investing has zero signal: top funds picking winners is luck, VC argues — dunkhippo33 · 2026-10-07
• Even all-in Anthropic is only ~20x, far below true seed-investing math, VC argues — dunkhippo33 · 2026-10-07
• VC math: even all-in on Anthropic is only ~20x — true seed funds need 1000x bets — dunkhippo33 · 2026-10-07