Even in an AGI world, interest rates could stay high if compute capex dominates borrowing
menhguin · x · 2026-10-06
In a debate on AGI macroeconomics, the author argues interest rates reflect the cost/opportunity cost of borrowing. If the AGI buildout is significantly debt-financed with very high expected returns—plausible when (1) algorithmic progress outpaces broad diffusion and (2) borrowing is dominated by capex—rates will stay high.
Even post-AGI, as long as the marginal borrowed dollar can fund physical compute with high expected ROI, rates should remain elevated, since compute expansion keeps absorbing capital and raising the cost of money.
Related event: AGI compute capex could keep rates high as opportunity cost shifts(2 posts)→
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