Toby Ord: AI progress could accelerate 10%, 100%, or even 1000% in a year
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-10-05
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord, discussing how recursive self-improvement (RSI) would affect the pace of AI progress, argued that even without a dramatic takeoff, there will be some acceleration relative to both the no-RSI counterfactual and prior years. He sees 10%, 100%, and 1000% speedups within a year all as live possibilities, while agreeing that 2-5 years of progress in one year is the more realistic estimate.
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