Study: Software Intelligence Explosion Could Compress Three Years of Progress Into One

A Forethought paper estimates a 60% chance that a software intelligence explosion compresses three years of progress into one. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord adds that even without radical acceleration, annual AI progress could speed up 10% to 1000% versus a no-RSI counterfactual.

2026-10-05 ~ 2026-10-05 · 2 related posts

• Forethought model: ~60% odds software intelligence explosion fits >3 years into <1 — ben_j_todd · 2026-10-05
• Toby Ord: AI progress could accelerate 10%, 100%, or even 1000% in a year — tobyordoxford · 2026-10-05