12 months of the jagged frontier: superhuman specialists, subhuman at running themselves
ZeroStateReflex · x · 2026-10-05
A quoted thread distills 12 months of progress on the jagged frontier:
- AI got spikier, not rounder: math, fluid reasoning, and expert work are past human level, with almost no middle ground
- Once a capability crosses human level, it quickly becomes 100x+ cheaper than a human
- Prices keep falling even after capability gains stop; language and knowledge look saturated but keep getting cheaper
- The gaps aren't a budget issue: human-level memory, self-monitoring, and long-run planning aren't for sale at any price
Conclusion: AI is now a superhuman specialist that is sub-human at running itself. Robin Hanson adds that this trend implies AI automating some, but far from all, human tasks — keeping us in a familiar economic world.
Related event: AI's Frontier Is Getting More Jagged, Not Smoother(2 posts)→
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