Study: top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving
The Decoder · rss · 2026-09-25
- A Forecasting Research Institute study finds leading AI experts have consistently underestimated AI progress.
- AI hit gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast.
- Anthropic's annualized revenue is roughly 5x what experts predicted.
- Forecasts for real-world deployments like self-driving cars show a more mixed picture.
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