Andy Matuschak: Modern Chips Are Too Durable for Compute-Control-Based AI Governance to Hold
andy_matuschak · x · 2026-09-25
Andy Matuschak explores chip burn-out as a hoped-for lever in AI governance: if strict chip controls cap capability, scrounged GPUs could still eventually train a dominant AI, making a pause without handing off control hard to sustain.
He hoped natural chip burn-out could impose deadlines on covert projects (a factor AI 2040's covert-projects model ignores), but found modern chips are surprisingly resilient—e.g., NCSA Blue Waters ran 4,228 GPU-years of workloads. Conclusion: relying on chips wearing out is not a viable governance safeguard.
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