AI researcher Quintin Pope puts near-extinction odds at 1-2%, utopia at ~30%
QuintinPope5 · x · 2026-09-21
AI researcher Quintin Pope shared his rough subjective probabilities for AI outcomes: "doom" (human near-extinction within 100 years) at about 1-2%, and "utopia" (everyone becomes really rich plus longevity escape velocity for under-50s) at roughly 30%. He notes the numbers are messy and highly sensitive to how fast/slow/utopia/doom are defined.
Related event: AI researcher Quintin Pope estimates odds of AI doom and utopia(3 posts)→
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