Seer's vision: AI-powered prediction markets pivot from gambling to decision machines
devanshmehta · x · 2026-09-13
A recap of Clement Delangue's vision for Seer: today's prediction markets treat information as a byproduct of gambling; the goal is to invert that and make them primarily about producing information.
Key examples:
- Opportunity markets: Devcon merch and the Seer rebrand were opened to crowd submissions, with a market pricing each proposal's acceptance probability so the team only reviewed top-rated entries. One submitter tried pushing their bid to 50% but was quickly counter-traded back.
- Micro markets: Clement built a market to pick movies, settling on his own post-viewing rating. The market was very wrong the first time but much better the second—markets are gambling machines in the short run and weighing machines in the long run.
- AI as the main player: Deep Funding predictions were mostly uploaded by AI handlers; eventually markets could run purely on AI traders, becoming an incentive-compatible ensemble of agent outputs.
The market for decisions is far bigger than today's event-based prediction markets.
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