Polymarket puts ~45% odds on a US AI safety bill by year-end as bipartisan talks accelerate
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-11
Polymarket traders put roughly 45-49% odds ($102K volume) on the US enacting an AI safety bill before end of 2026.
- Resolution criteria span model bans, training/parameter limits, usage restrictions, and human-in-the-loop requirements
- Bipartisan talks involving Senators Klobuchar, Cruz, and Majority Leader Thune have accelerated, with a draft expected soon, though lawmakers see limited odds of enactment this year
- The thread also cites Anthropic's disclosure that it blocked several attempts to use Claude for bioweapons research, including gain-of-function work at a military institute
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