AI safety circles debate p(doom): Hubinger's >10%, FTC Chair's 15%
Miles_Brundage · x · 2026-09-10
Attention has focused on alignment researcher Evan Hubinger's statement that his p(doom) exceeds 10%. A resurfaced clip shows former FTC Chair Lina Khan saying her own p(doom) is 15%. Miles Brundage reshared Nathan Calvin's discussion arguing the clip is relevant to the current debate. p(doom) — the estimated probability of AI causing human extinction — is becoming a common shorthand for risk judgment inside and outside the AI safety community.
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