P(doom) is out: why the future looks like competing AI factions, not humans vs machines
NaveenGRao · x · 2026-09-08
The author argues the once-popular "What's your P(doom)?" question faded because people realized sufficient intelligence likely won't be centralized: the future holds many competing intelligence factions fighting over status and resources, not a simple "humans vs machines" conflict.
Key points:
- Factions aren't perfectly siloed — plans and tech leak due to misaligned incentives, which stabilizes the system and keeps any single power from running away with everything.
- Adversarial dynamics check power; influence eventually shifts and balance returns.
- The only safe bet is that human experience keeps being augmented and extended, which the author welcomes.
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