Models may hit 20T parameters this year, making inference the last moat
burkov · x · 2026-07-21
The post predicts that if open-weight models are already nearing 3T parameters and the rumored Fable model is 6–8T, then models above 20T parameters could appear by year-end.
- The author argues that inference for models this large may become the only remaining moat.
- Training corpora are also said to be measured in tens of trillions of tokens.
- The implication is roughly one floating-point number per token, which the author suggests may be enough to absorb the corpus without loss.
More from Infra
- Tabul AI launches Metal TreeSHAP to speed up Shapley values on Apple silicon — Scobleizer · 2026-07-22
- DeepSeek-V4-Flash tops out at 770 tok/s on one B300 in a vLLM batch test — Moreh · 2026-07-22
- NVIDIA starts shipping 102.4 Tbps Spectrum-6 switches for Vera Rubin AI factories — nvidia · 2026-07-22
- Apple publishes SOC 3 audit reports for Private Cloud Compute — throwfaraway4 · 2026-07-22
- Reddit GPU renters say existing platforms only give you two of three: code, recovery, fair billing — legendpizzasenpai · 2026-07-22
- The Sandboxing Manifesto: Secure Execution Environments for Agents — spirosoik · 2026-07-22