Models may hit 20T parameters this year, making inference the last moat
burkov · x · 2026-07-21
The post predicts that if open-weight models are already nearing 3T parameters and the rumored Fable model is 6–8T, then models above 20T parameters could appear by year-end.
- The author argues that inference for models this large may become the only remaining moat.
- Training corpora are also said to be measured in tens of trillions of tokens.
- The implication is roughly one floating-point number per token, which the author suggests may be enough to absorb the corpus without loss.
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