Debate Resurfaces Over Whether Forecasting Is Overrated on LessWrong

A LessWrong essay arguing forecasting is overrated and undeserving of funding resurfaced in discussion. AI safety researcher Jacques Thibs responded to criticism by citing his 2022 paper advocating strategic foresight and multi-scenario planning for AGI governance.

2026-11-15 ~ 2026-11-15 · 4 related posts

• LessWrong essay argues forecasting is way overrated and should stop being funded — JacquesThibs · 2026-11-15
• Four years of AI timeline forecasting may have hurt more than helped — JacquesThibs · 2026-11-15
• AI 2027-style scenario narratives work rhetorically, but the probabilities are shaky — JacquesThibs · 2026-11-15
• AI safety researcher revives 2022 case for strategic foresight in AGI governance — JacquesThibs · 2026-11-15