LessWrong essay argues forecasting is way overrated and should stop being funded
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-15
JacquesThibs shared (and is re-reading) a LessWrong essay titled "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It." The essay argues that forecasting practice, especially forecasting tournaments, has been given outsized status in rationalist/effective-altruist circles, delivers limited marginal value, and should see its funding cut in favor of more effective interventions.
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