AI 2027-style scenario narratives work rhetorically, but the probabilities are shaky
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-15
Continuing the discussion on AI forecasting, Jacques Thibault argues that specific scenario narratives like AI 2027 and AI 2040 have been rhetorically effective in bringing topics like RSI to public attention, though he is unsure about the specifics of their probabilities. He adds that the right messenger saying "10% chance of doom by date X" has been effective in getting the public to take these risks more seriously.
Related event: AI safety community debates whether forecasting work is overrated(4 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- DeepMind researcher: AGI will likely decentralize power, not centralize it — sebkrier · 2026-11-15
- Skeptic asks how RSI can start when LLMs fail at far out-of-distribution tasks — mariofilhoml · 2026-11-15
- Ex-Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon: AI near recursive self-improvement within a year — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-11-15
- Prediction: Superintelligence kills profits and riches; UHI worth 100x salaries by 2035 — davidpattersonx · 2026-11-15
- a_rohan_ dreams of a sun-powered GPU constellation training in space after SpaceX rocket catch — _arohan_ · 2026-11-15
- tszzl: automated research can crack mechanistic alignment — 'it's more like math than cell bio' — tszzl · 2026-11-15