Toby Ord puts ~1-in-8 odds on an intelligence explosion next year, backs slowing down
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-11
In a debate with Tamay Besiroglu, philosopher Toby Ord responds to the argument that without pacing there's a substantial (50%) chance of an intelligence explosion next year. He assigns lower but non-trivial odds (1 in 8), says this makes slowing down important, while predicting the explosion is unlikely next year.
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